Posted at 12 November 2020 / Categories Market Roundups
•UK GDP (MoM) 1.1%,1.5% forecast, 2.1% previous
•UK Index of Services 14.2%,7.1% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change 15.5%,8.0% previous
•UK Manufacturing Sep Production (MoM) 0.2%,1.0% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK Sep Manufacturing Production (YoY) -7.9%,-7.4% forecast, -8.4% previous
•UK Sep Industrial Production (YoY) -6.3% -6.1%, forecast, -6.4% previous
•German Oct CPI (YoY) -0.2%,-0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•German Oct CPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.1% forecast, 0.1%0.1% previous
•German Oct HICP (MoM) 0.0%, -0.4% forecast, -0.4% previous
•German Oct HICP (YoY) -0.5%, -0.5% forecast, -0.5% previous
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q3) -20.7%, -26.1% previous
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) 8.8%,-26.5% previous
•UK Sep Construction Output (MoM) 2.9%,2.1% forecast, 3.0% previous
•UK Sep Construction Output (YoY) -10.0%,-11.7% forecast, -13.0% previous
•UK Sep Trade Balance -9.35B, -9.50B forecast, -9.01B previous
•UK Sep Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5%,0.8% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 15.5%,15.8% forecast, -19.8% previous
•UK Labour Productivity 3.0%, -1.8% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q3) -9.6%,-9.4% forecast, -21.5% previous
•Sweden Oct CPI (MoM) -0.1%, -0.1%-0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•EU Sep Industrial Production (MoM) -0.4%,0.7% forecast, 0.7% previous
•EU Sep Industrial Production (YoY) -6.8%, -5.8% forecast, -7.2% previous
•Irish Oct CPI (MoM )-0.6%,-0.4% previous
•Irish Oct CPI (YoY) -1.5%, -1.2% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•13:30 US Oct Core CPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 13:30 US Oct Core CPI (YoY) 1.8% forecast, 1.7% previous
• 13:30 US Oct Core CPI Index 269.26 previous
• 13:30 US Oct CPI (YoY) 1.3% , 1.4% previous
• 13:30 US Oct CPI (MoM) 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•13:30 US Oct CPI Index, s.a 260.21 previous
• 13:30 US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) 0.14% previous
• 13:30 US Oct Real Earnings (MoM) 0.2% previous
• 13:30 US Oct CPI Index, n.s.a. 260.49 forecast, 260.28 previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 6,900K forecast, 7,285K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 735K forecast, 751K previous
• 13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 787.00K previous
•16:00 US Oct Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.1% previous
•16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories-0.913M forecast, -7.998M previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•16:00 UK BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
•16:00 UK BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
•18:00 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
•18:00 US Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
•18:30 Canada BoC Gov Council Member Wilkins Speaks
•19:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against dollar on Thursday as caution replaced enthusiasm over COVID-19 vaccines, while focus also remained on the European Central Bank. ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday the bank would focus on more emergency bond purchases and cheap loans in its new stimulus package, due in December. Central banks will again be on focus on Thursday, with Lagarde due to speak together with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the ECB’s annual symposium at 16:45 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1805 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1860 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1751 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1681 (23.6% fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined against dollar on Thursday after Britain’s economy grew by a slower than expected 1.1% in September from August, a pace that leaves the country lagging other rich nations in its attempted recovery from the pandemic. The impact of the number was all the heavier because the period measured was before the latest COVID-19 restrictions on businesses took effect. Another piece of data released on Thursday showed that in the July-September period, gross domestic product grew by a record 15.5% compared with the previous three months.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3222 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3317 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3131 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3067(61.8 % fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors appeared to waver between optimism and caution over expectations about a COVID-19 vaccine that is unlikely to avert a grim winter in Europe and the United States as the pandemic’s second wave intensifies. Larger moves were held in check as investors await speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at a central banking forum on Thursday. At 12:30 GMT, the dollar was 0.11 percent lower versus the Swiss franc at 0.9155 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9710 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9206 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9371 (61.8% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9116 (5DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen Thursday as the initial burst of optimism over headway in a coronavirus vaccine trial cooled. Traders were tempering expectations of an early release of a COVID-19 vaccine. Most of Europe’s main economies are already grappling with a wave of infections and new social restrictions. New York also ordered bars and restaurants to start closing early on Wednesday after U.S. cases hit records. Until the timing of the availability of a vaccine becomes clearer market sentiment is likely to remain volatile. Strong resistance can be seen at 105.63 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 106.24 (higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 104.93 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 104.60 (14 DMA ).
European shares retreated from eight-month highs on Thursday as surging coronavirus infections raised doubts about a quicker economic rebound and overshadowed several upbeat quarterly earnings reports.
At (GMT 12:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down at 0.89 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.44 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 1.68 percent.
Gold prices edged up on Thursday, after dropping over 1% in the previous session, as concerns over the economic fallout from surging COVID-19 cases outweighed positive development around a vaccine.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,868.81 per ounce by 0549 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were 0.3% higher at $1,866.30 per ounce.
Oil prices rose in early trade on Thursday, taking the week’s gains to more than 12% on growing hopes that the world’s major producers will hold off on a planned supply increase as soaring cases of COVID-19 dent fuel demand.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 35 cents, or 0.8%, to $41.80 a barrel at 0130 GMT, while Brent crude futures rose 31 cents, or 0.7%, to $44.11 a barrel.