Posted at 01 October 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
•US Indexes down: Dow 1.71%, S&P 1.51%, Nasdaq 1.51%
•US Aug PCE Price index (YoY) 6.2%,6.3% previous
•US Aug Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Aug PCE price index (MoM) 0.3%,-0.1% previous
•US Aug Personal Spending (MoM) 0.4%,0.2% forecast ,0.1% previous
•US Aug Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.9%,4.7% forecast , 4.6% previous
•US Aug Personal Income (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US Sep Chicago PMI 45.7, 51.8 forecast, 52.2 previous
• US Sep Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.7%,4.6% previous
•US Sep Michigan Consumer Expectations 58.0 ,59.9 previous
•US Sep Michigan Current Conditions 59.7 ,58.9 previous
•US Sep Michigan Consumer Sentiment 58.6 ,59.5 forecast, 59.5 previous
•US Aug Dallas Fed PCE 6.00% ,3.40% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•No significant events
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday after inflation in the euro zone hit a record high, but headed for a weekly gain on hawkish signals from the European Central Bank as some calm returned to foreign exchange markets at the end of a wild week. Data on Friday showed euro zone inflation zoomed past forecasts to hit 10.0% in September, a new record high that will reinforce expectations for another jumbo rate hike next month from the ECB. The euro was down 0.10% at $0.98055. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.08% on the day but on track for a quarterly gain of 7.2%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9854 (14DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9942(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9766(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9603(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly gains since March 2020 after the Bank of England intervened to calm markets spooked by the government tax cut plans announced on Sept. 23.In a turnaround from the record lows the pound struck on Monday in reaction to the so called mini-budget fiscal plan, and helped by emergency BoE bond buying, the British currency rose to a one-week high on Friday.It was heading for its biggest weekly rise in more than two years, but was still set for its second deepest monthly drop since October 2016. In a volatile session, the British currency rose 0.5% to $1.1161 after slipping as much as 0.8% earlier. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1244(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1288 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1014 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0926(5DMA).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as commodity-led currencies fell sharply after European inflation hit a record high and U.S. consumer spending increased faster than expected. The U.S. Commerce Department said the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which the Federal Reserve targets at 2%, rose 6.2% year-on-year in August. This gave the Fed less reason to slow down its rate hiking cycle after raising U.S. borrowing costs faster in 2022 than any time since the 1980s. Oil prices dipped in choppy trading but notched their first weekly gain in five on Friday, underpinned by the possibility that OPEC+ will agree to cut crude output when it meets on Oct. 5. The Canadian dollar was trading 1.08% lower at 1.3827 to the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3831 (23.6% fib A), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3866(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3721 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3692 (38.2% fib.
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against the Japanese yen on Friday as expectation that Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher to tame inflation supported dollar.A strong U.S. jobs market with weekly jobless claims hitting a five-month low added to the case of more aggressive tightening from the Fed. Fed policymakers have been resolute in raising interest rates despite a turmoil in global financial markets. The dollar was up 0.2% against the yen at 144.765 , and has been mostly tracking sideways since early September.Japan made its first yen buying intervention since 1998 last week to prop up its currency. It spent a record 2.8 trillion yen ($19.7 billion), Ministry of Finance data showed on Friday, draining nearly 15% of funds it has available for intervention. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.89 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.50(Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.15 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 143.61(38.2%fib).
European markets closed on a firm note on Friday, as stocks saw some spirited buying, tracking a recovery in the U.S. market on hopes the Fed is monitoring the volatile swings witnessed by the global markets due to aggressive monetary policy tightening.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.16 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.54 percent.
The S&P 500 closed the books on its steepest September decline in two decades on Friday, skidding across the finish line of a tumultuous quarter fraught with historically hot inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.74% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.51% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.51% percent.
Treasury yields rose on Friday in a volatile week rocked by a Bank of England intervention that sent bond prices soaring only to later slip after a raft of Federal Reserve officials insisted U.S. interest rates will stay higher for longer.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 6.9 basis points to 3.817%; the 30-year was up 7.3 basis points to 3.766%, and the two-year , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 7.4 basis points at 4.244%.
Gold rose to a one-week high on Friday as the dollar retreated from recent highs but bullion was headed towards its worst quarter since March last year, buckling under fears of impending large interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Spot gold was 0.1% higher at $1,661.89 per ounce by 1:45 p.m. EDT (1745 GMT) and gained 1.1% so far this week.U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% higher at $1,672.
Oil prices dipped on Friday in choppy trading but notched their first weekly gain in five on Friday, underpinned by the possibility that OPEC+ will agree to cut crude output when it meets on Oct. 5.
Brent crude futures for November, which expire on Friday, fell 53 cents, or 0.6%, to $87.96 a barrel. The more active December contract was down $2.07 at $85.11.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.74, or 2.1%, to $79.49.