Posted at 03 December 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
•US Nov Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•Canada Nov Employment Change 10.1K ,5.0K forecast, 108.3K previous
•US Nov U6 Unemployment Rate 6.7% ,6.8% previous
•US Nov Participation Rate 62.1% ,62.2% previous
•US Nov Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 5.1% ,4.6% forecast, 4.7% previous
•US Nov Unemployment Rate 3.7% ,3.7% forecast,3.7% previous
•US Nov Average Weekly Hours 34.4 ,34.5 forecast, 34.5 previous
•Canada Nov Unemployment Rate 5.1%, 5.3% forecast, 5.2% previous
•US Nov Government Payrolls 42.0K ,28.0K previous
•US Nov Manufacturing Payrolls 14K, 20K forecast, 32K previous
•US Nov Nonfarm Payrolls 263K, 200K forecast,261K previous
•US Nov Private Nonfarm Payrolls 221K ,190K forecast, 233K previous
•Canada Nov Full Employment Change 50.7K, 119.3K previous
•Canada Nov Part Time Employment Change -40.6K, -11.0K previous
•Canada Nov Participation Rate 64.8% ,64.9% previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 784 ,784 previous
•US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 627,627 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT )
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•No significant events
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday as investors digested a stronger than expected jobs report, which had raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's ability to slow rate hikes.The U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 jobs last month compared with economist expectations for 200,000 jobs. And average hourly earnings increased 0.6%, up from 0.5% in October. The report released two days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it could be time to slow the pace of rate hikes made investors question whether the central banker would be able to follow through on his suggestion. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0551(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0593(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0408(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0383(14DMA).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against dollar on Friday as a Federal Reserve official said rate hikes are likely to slow and as investors took profits from earlier gains after jobs data and wage inflation were surprisingly strong in November and muddied the outlook for how hawkish the U.S. central bank will be. The greenback initially jumped after data showed that employers added 263,000 jobs in November, well above estimates of 200,000.But the dollar gave back gains as investors took profits before the weekend and as Fed officials spoke on the outlook.The dollar index was last down 0.13% on the day against a basket of currencies at 104.50, and the euro gained 0.10% to $1.0537, the highest since June 28. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2229( 23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2375 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2113(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1989(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as domestic jobs data caused few surprises, while a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs gain ran counter to hopes that the Federal Reserve would soon slow the pace of rate hikes. Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with the forecast gain of 5,000, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%.Money markets expect the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next Wednesday, with chances of a larger move increasing to roughly 25% from 15% before the data. The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3471to the greenback, after trading in a range of 1.3421 to 1.3520. For the week, it was down 0.8%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3505 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3568(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3398 (14DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3366 (38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against Japanese yen on Friday as the U.S. jobs data reignited investor concerns about the Federal Reserve continuing on its path of aggressive monetary policy tightening. Data showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in November and raised wages despite mounting worries of a recession. Additionally, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans stated at an event that there could be “a slightly higher peak rate of the funds rate, even as we likely will step down” the pace of rate hikes from 75 bps. Fed funds futures prices still implied a 75% chance of the central bank raising its policy rate by 50 basis points to a 4.25%-4.5% range in mid-December .Strong resistance can be seen at 135.69(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 137.85(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 133.72(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.96(Lower BB).
European stocks ended mixed on Friday, after having hit a six-month high in the previous session on signs of easing COVID-19 curbs in China and expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve may temper its aggressive rate hikes.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.27%percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0. 17 percent.
The S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Friday, although major indexes rallied off their worst levels of the day, as the November payrolls report fueled expectations the Federal Reserve would maintain its path of interest rate hikes to combat inflation.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.10 percent, S&P 500 ended down by 1.12percent, Nasdaq finished the day down by 0.18 percent.
Yields turned lower after earlier rising sharply as investors eyed the resilient labor market and rising wages as worrisome for the Fed's efforts to tame inflation.
Benchmark 10-year note yields were up 2.7 basis points to 3.554%, from 3.527% late on Thursday. The 30-year bond yield was last down 3.9 basis points at 3.594%, from 3.633%. The 2-year note yield was last was up 7.1 basis points at 4.3255% from 4.254%.
Oil futures sank in Friday's choppy session ahead of a meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday and an EU ban on Russian crude on Monday.
U.S. crude settled down 1.5% at $79.98 per barrel and Brent ended at $85.57, also down 1.5% on the day.
Gold prices slipped on Friday, retreating from a near-four month high, after robust U.S. jobs data fanned concerns that the Federal Reserve might stick with its aggressive monetary policy tightening.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,794.96 per ounce by 2:21 p.m. ET (1921 GMT), after earlier hitting its highest since Aug. 10 at $1,804.46. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.3% at $1,809.6.