Europe Roundup: Sterling falls to a fresh one-month low against dollar ,European shares steady, Gold firms, Oil rises on China outlook, supply worries after Turkey earthquake-February 7th,2023

Posted at 07 February 2023 / Categories Market Roundups

Market Roundup

•Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate s.a.  1.9%,1.9% forecast, 1.9% previous

•Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate n.s.a 2.2%,2.2% forecast, 2.1% previous

•UK Halifax House Price Index (YoY)1.9%,-0.3% forecast,2.0% previous

•UK Jan Halifax House Price Index (MoM)  0.0%,-0.8% forecast, -1.5% previous

•EU Dec Finnish Trade Balance  -0.67B,0.32B previous

•EU Dec German Industrial Production (MoM)  -3.1%,-0.7% forecast, 0.2% previous

•French Dec Government Budget Balance-151.5B, -159.3B previous

•French Dec Trade Balance  -14.9B,-12.2B forecast,-13.8B previous

•French Dec Current Account  -8.50B, -6.80B previous

•French Dec Imports  65.9B,64.8B previous

•UK Jan Mortgage Rate 6.66% ,6.41% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)

•13:30 US Exports 251.90B previous

•13:30 US  Imports 313.40B previous

•13:30   US Dec Trade Balance-68.50B forecast,-61.50B previous

•13:30   Canada Dec Trade Balance  -0.50B forecast,-0.04B previous

•13:30   Canada Dec Imports   64.41B previous

•13:30  Canada Dec Exports 64.37B previous

•13:55  US Redbook (YoY) 4.9% previous

•15:00  New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index-0.1% previous

•15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 42.3 previous

Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

•15:00   UK  BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks

•17:00   ECB's Schnabel Speaks  

•17:40   US Fed Chair Powell Speaks       

•17:45   Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks           
•19:00   US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks   


EUR/USD: The euro declined against the dollar on Tuesday  as traders waited to see if the head of the Federal Reserve and a number of top ECB and BoE officials give any new insights later on where interest rates are heading.  Investors  awaited remarks by European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel and policymakers Peter Kazimir and Klaas Knot due later in the day, following a relatively hawkish tone by the central bank and a 50-basis point rate hike last week. The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0695, having fallen earlier in the day to its lowest since Jan. 9. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0751(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0799 (Feb 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0685(50DMA), a break below could take the pair towards  1.0600(Psychological level).

GBP/USD: Sterling fell to a fresh one-month low against a strengthening dollar, as investors expect the Bank of England to end its series of rate hikes soon, while the Federal Reserve could keep raising rates more than previously expected.Investors await provisional data for British fourth-quarter gross domestic product on Friday and more comments from BoE speakers, while fading risk appetite due to geopolitical tensions might weigh on the pound. Sterling fell 0.25% to $1.1975.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2082(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2176(50DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1930(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1767 (50%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar dipped against the Swiss franc on Tuesday   after its rally the previous day, but as traders assessed on how high the U.S. Federal Reserve would need to raise interest rates to tame inflation. Focus on Tuesday will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Economic Club of Washington, at which Commerzbank analysts expect him to sound hawkish, which might give the dollar another lift. Markets have been recovering from the shock of Friday's U.S jobs report, which showed that nonfarm payrolls surged to 517,000 in January, pointing to a resilient labour market.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9274(50DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9316 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9236 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9194(23.6%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Tuesday as the dollar pulled back some ground as investors  eyed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech later in the day to gauge the U.S. central bank's monetary policy path. Data on Tuesday showed that Japan's real wages rose in December for the first time in nine months, though uncertainty remains over whether pay hikes will continue to sustain the country's economic recovery.A newspaper report on Monday said Japan's government has sounded out Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya to succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda as central bank governor. Amamiya is considered by markets as more dovish than other contenders.  Strong resistance can be seen at 132.63(50DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.448 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 131.31(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 131.00 (Psychological level)

Equities Recap

European shares edged higher on Tuesday ahead of comments by central bank policymakers against the backdrop of expectations that the global interest-rate increase cycle would last for longer, while bumper profits from BP lifted energy stocks.

At (GMT 13:25 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.46 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.27 percent, France’s CAC   was up by 0.02 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold inched up on Tuesday as traders waited for more economic data to gauge its likely influence on U.S. interest rates, while a slightly higher dollar kept prices in check.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,870.16 per ounce by 1209 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since Jan. 6 on Monday.U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,878.80.

Oil prices rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, driven by optimism about recovering demand in China and concerns over supply shortages following the shutdown of a major export terminal after an earthquake in Turkey.

Brent crude futures were up $1.78, or 2.2%, to $82.77 per barrel at 1042 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate U.S. crude futures rose $1.74, or 2.4%, to $75.88 per barrel.

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