Posted at 05 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. employment data out 1330 GMT
•UK Dec Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 1.1%, 0.1% forecast,0.5% previous
•UK Dec Halifax House Price Index (YoY) 1.7%,-1.0% previous
•German Nov Retail Sales (MoM) -2.5%, -0.1% forecast,1.1% previous
•German Nov German Retail Sales (YoY) -2.4%, -0.5% forecast,-0.1% previous
•UK Car Registration (YoY) 9.8%,9.5% previous
•UK Construction PMI 46.8,46.0 forecast,45.5 previous
•UK Housing Equity Withdrawal (QoQ)-21.8B,-23.2B previous
•EU Dec CPI, n.s.a 124.04, 123.85 previous
•EU Dec CPI (YoY) 2.9%, 3.0% forecast,2.4% previous
•Italian Dec CPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,0.5% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY)3.4%, 3.5% forecast,3.6% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) 0.2%,-0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Dec Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Full Employment Change 59.6K previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Part Time Employment Change -34.7K previous
•13:30 US Dec Private Nonfarm Payrolls 130K forecast,150K previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Avg hourly wages Permanent employee 5.0% previous
•13:30 US Dec Nonfarm Payrolls 170K forecast,199K previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Unemployment Rate 5.9% forecast,5.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Manufacturing Payrolls 5K forecast,28K previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Participation Rate 65.6% previous
•13:30 US Dec Government Payrolls 49.0K previous
•13:30 US Average Weekly Hours 34.4 forecast,34.4 previous
•13:30 US Dec Unemployment Rate 3.8% forecast,3.7% previous
•13:30 US Dec Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) 3.9% forecast,4.0% previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Employment Change 13.5K forecast,24.9K previous
•13:30 US Dec Participation Rate 62.8% previous
•13:30 US Dec U6 Unemployment Rate 7.0% previous
•15:00 US Nov Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) -1.2% previous
•15:00 US Nov Factory Orders (MoM) 2.1% forecast,-3.6% previous
•15:00 US Nov Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) 0.5% previous
•15:00 Canada Dec Ivey PMI 55.0 forecast,54.7 previous
•15:00 Canada Dec Ivey PMI n.s.a 53.2 previous
•15:00 US Nov Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) 6.5% previous
•15:00 US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 55.1 previous
•15:00 US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 55.5 previous
•15:00 US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 50.7 previous
•15:00 US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 58.3 previous
•15:00 US Dec ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.6 forecast,52.7 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 500 previous
•18:00 U.S U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 622 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Friday as caution set in ahead of key U.S. employment reports which may influence expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. U.S. unemployment data on Thursday indicated a still resilient U.S. labour market, tempering prospects of deep rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The release of monthly U.S. payrolls figures later in the day would further influence expectations about the timing and pace of rate cuts. The euro fell 0.36% to $1.0904, and is on track for a 1.2% decline in the week, its sharpest weekly drop since mid-May and snapping a run of three weeks of increases. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0989(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0911(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0839 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against dollar on Friday as market participants focus shifted to U.S. payrolls numbers due later in the day. Data on Thursday showed that U.S. private employers hired more workers than expected in December, pointing to persistent strength in the labour market.Economists polled by forecast that 170,000 jobs were created in December, fewer than the 199,000 in November.Traders are now pricing in about a 66% chance of a rate cut from the Fed at its March 20 policy meeting, compared with a 90% chance a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The pound fell 0.13% to $1.2665 against strengthening dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2734(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2778(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2493(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Friday as investors keenly awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later in the day. U.S. monthly non-farm payrolls figures later in the day could also provide clues about the next moves for the Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates from a 22-year high in 2024 but closely watches employment data for signs of resurgent inflationary pressures. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, added 0.3% to 102.72. For the week, it is up 1.34%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8591(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8661(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8483(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8379(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday as investors were waiting for data on U.S. payrolls, which might further influence expectations for US monetary policy. Thursday's data revealed that in December, private employers in the United States hired a greater number of workers than initially anticipated, indicating a continued robustness in the labor market. Attention has now turned toward the impending U.S. non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release at 1330 GMT, expected to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve's prospective interest rate trajectory. According to economists surveyed, projections suggest the creation of 170,000 jobs in December, a decline from the 199,000 jobs reported in November. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.25(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.65(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.18(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.86(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped on Friday in a broader market decline, poised for their first weekly loss in eight, with investors awaiting euro-zone inflation prints and U.S. payrolls data that could further shape monetary policy expectations.
At (GMT 13:01 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.89 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.81 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices gained on Friday, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepared to visit the Middle East to try and prevent the Israel-Gaza conflict from widening.
Brent crude futures were up 44 cents, or 0.57%, to $78.03 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 57 cents, or 0.79%, to $72.76 at 1032 GMT
Gold prices slipped on Friday and were on track for their first weekly fall in four, weighed down by a stronger dollar and higher bond yields, while investors keenly awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data due later in the day.
Spot gold was down 0.2% to $2,038.49 per ounce as of 1223 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $2,045.40.