Posted at 05 February 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.358% ,3.239% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.825% ,3.822% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction3.739%, 3.687% previous
•US Jan S&P Global Composite PMI 52.0 ,52.3 forecast,50.9 previous
•US Jan Services PMI 52.5 ,52.9 forecast,51.4 previous
•US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 55.0, 52.8 previous
•US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 50.5 ,43.3 previous
•US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.4 ,52.0 forecast,50.6 previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.045%,4.985% previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.235% ,5.210% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q4) 0.2% previous
•00:30 Australia Dec Retail Sales (MoM) 0.1% forecast,1.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•03:30 Australia Feb RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.35% forecast,4.35% previous
•03:30 Australia RBA Rate Statement
•03:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Monday as dollar rose following a robust U.S. jobs report and remarks from Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations of imminent interest rate cuts. U.S. services sector growth picked up in January as new orders increased and employment rebounded, the Institute for supply management (ISM) said, suggesting economic growth momentum from the fourth quarter spilled over into the new year. The data added to Friday's blockbuster U.S. jobs report that far exceeded expectations and forced the market to readjust its outlook for rate cuts. The euro fell to its lowest since Nov. 14 at $1.0721 and was last down 0.43% at $1.0744. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0798(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0828 ( 38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0740(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0728(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound dropped to its lowest level since mid-December following a robust U.S. jobs report and statements made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which collectively strengthened the dollar. Friday's data revealed that U.S. job growth in January exceeded expectations by a significant margin, accompanied by solid wage growth. These numbers prompted investors to reassess their expectations of a potential rate cut by the Fed in March, leading to an increase in bond yields and strengthening the dollar. Sterling fell to $1.2581, its lowest since Dec. 17, and last traded 0.32% lower at $1.2593. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2636(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2724(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2530(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2465(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as traders reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve will rapidly cut interest rates this year, after new economic data further weakened those odds. U.S. services sector growth picked up in January as new orders increased and employment rebounded.ISM's non-manufacturing PMI increased to 53.4 from 50.5 in December, higher than 52.0 that economists polled had forecast. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services industry, which drives more than two-thirds of the economy. The data added to Friday's blockbuster U.S. jobs report that far exceeded expectations and forced the market to readjust its outlook for rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3545 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3588 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3483(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3415(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday as traders clawed back bets for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.The Fed repricing has followed Friday's blockbuster U.S. jobs report that far exceeded market expectations and sent U.S. dollar soaring . According to data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Friday, non-farm payrolls surged by 353,000 jobs in January, nearly doubling the forecast of 180,000 by economists surveyed The main event on the economic calendar is the ISM non-manufacturing survey later in the day, which will give a sense of the health of the U.S. economy in January. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.18(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.66(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.01 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.98(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares closed lower on Monday, as government bond yields across the continent jumped on lower expectations about imminent interest rate cuts by major central banks, eclipsing gains brought by some upbeat corporate reports.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.08percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.03 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes closed lower on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back firmly against speculation that rate cuts would be imminent, while investors assessed a mixed bag of U.S. earnings reports.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.71% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.32 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.20% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold dropped to more than a one-week low on Monday, weighed down by a higher dollar and bond yields after a solid U.S. jobs report and remarks from Federal Reserve officials dashed expectations of early interest rate cuts.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $2,027.09 per ounce by 2:09 p.m. EST (1909 GMT) after hitting its lowest level since Jan. 25 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% lower at $2042.9.
Oil prices gained about a dollar a barrel on Monday due to concerns that escalating tensions in the Middle East and Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine might restrict global supplies.
Brent crude futures settled higher by 66 cents, or 0.9%, at $77.99 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $72.78 a barrel, up 50 cents, or 0.7%. Both contracts gained for the first time in four sessions.