Posted at 11 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Italian Nov Industrial Production (YoY) -3.1%, -1.1%previous
•Italian Nov Italian Industrial Production (MoM) -1.5%,-0.2%forecast,-0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,871K forecast,1,855K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 207.75K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 210K forecast,202K previous
•13:30 US Dec Real Earnings (MoM) 0.5% previous
•13:30 US Dec CPI Index, s.a 307.92 previous
•13:30 US Dec CPI, n.s.a (MoM) -0.20% previous
•13:30 US Dec Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•13:30 US Dec Core CPI (YoY) 3.8% forecast, 4.0% previous
•13:30 US Dec CPI (YoY) 3.2% forecast,3.1% previous
•13:30 US Dec CPI Index, n.s.a. 306.61 forecast,307.05 previous
•13:30 US Dec CPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 17:40 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied against dollar on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for more clarity on the trajectory of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks Market participants keenly await the U.S. inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET (1330 GMT), to assess the timing of rate cuts from the Fed, which will help set the tone for other central banks.Traders are betting on 140 basis points (bps) of rate cuts by the U.S. central bank this year, with a more than 30% chance of at least a 25 bps cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) as early as March. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0978. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0993(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0961(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0921(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound slightly gained against the dollar on Thursday, on expectation that U.S. data that might support the belief that the Federal Reserve will soon reduce interest rates. Data later on Thursday is expected to show U.S. consumer inflation rose by 3.2% in December, versus November's 3.1% rate, while the core rate is expected to have slowed to an annual pace of 3.8% from 4% the month before. Sterling was last up 0.1% at $1.275. Against the euro , the pound was up 0.1% at 86.02 pence. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2775(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2804(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2723 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2493(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar edged lower against Swiss franc on Thursday as traders waited for U.S. inflation data to confirm whether bets on as many as five Fed interest rate cuts this year were justified. The main event for the currency market on Thursday is monthly U.S. consumer inflation, which economists expected to have slowed again in December.The dollar has slid in recent weeks, as investors have become increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve could start cutting rates as early as March - an expectation many in the market see as excessive. The dollar index fell 0.2%, on its second session of decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8522(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8566(23.6%fib ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8490(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8455(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday as traders waited for U.S. inflation data to confirm whether bets on as many as five Fed interest rate cuts this year were justified. The U.S. consumer price inflation (CPI) report is due at 1330 GMT, and will shed further light on when the Fed could start cutting rates. Traders are betting on 140 basis points (bps) of interest rate cuts by the U.S. central bank this year and a 69% chance they begin as soon as March. A Reuters poll sees year-on-year inflation at 3.2% in December, while core inflation likely fell to 3.8%, its lowest since mid-2021. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.87(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.21( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.10(38.2% fib)a break below could take the pair towards 143.81(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European steadied on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for more clarity on the trajectory of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.
At (GMT 12:54 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Thursday, buoyed by a softer dollar, while markets awaited a key U.S. inflation report later in the day that could help gauge the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory this year.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,033.70 per ounce, as of 1206 GMT. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.6% to $2,038.90.
Oil prices rose on Thursday after an oil tanker was boarded by an armed group in Oman, raising the prospect of escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures gained $1.03, or 1.3%, to $77.83 a barrel by 0916 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 98 cents, or 1.4%, to $72.35, though gains were capped by a surprise build in U.S. crude stockpiles.