Posted at 12 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•U.S. CPI rose more than expected
•Fed's Mester sees March rate cut as unlikely
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,834K ,1,871K forecast,1,855K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 207.75K ,207.75K previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 202K ,210K forecast,202K previous
• US Dec Real Earnings (MoM) -0.2% ,0.5% previous
• US Dec CPI Index, s.a 308.85 ,307.92 previous
• US Dec CPI, n.s.a (MoM) -0.10%, -0.20% previous
• US Dec Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% ,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
• US Dec Core CPI (YoY) 3.9% ,3.8% forecast, 4.0% previous
• US Dec CPI (YoY) 3.4% ,3.2% forecast,3.1% previous
• US Dec CPI Index, n.s.a. 306.75, 306.61 forecast,307.05 previous
• US Dec CPI (MoM) 0.3% ,0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•05:00 Japan Dec Economy Watchers Current Index 49.9 forecast,49.5 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro steadied against dollar on Thursday as markets assessed higher-than-expected US CPI. U.S. consumer prices increased in December as rents maintained their upward trend, edging 0.3% higher for the month and up an annual 3.4%, versus economists' forecast in a poll for a 0.2% gain and 3.2% rise, respectively. Traders are pricing in a 73.2% chance for the first 25 basis point cut to come in March, with several more cuts to follow, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The euro stuck around $1.0977 against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0993(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0961(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0921(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound gained against the dollar on Thursday after data showed U.S. consumer price inflation came in above economists' expectations in December, raising some doubts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates as soon as some traders expect. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday addressed lawmakers. He said he did not wish to discuss the economic outlook, but pointed to the decline in mortgage rates as markets have shifted to the view that the BoE's benchmark rate will decline swiftly this year. Futures markets show traders are close to pricing in four rate cuts this year, potentially as early as May, but definitely by June. Sterling was last trading at $1.284, up 0.07% on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2785(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2804(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2723 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2493(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data cast doubt on prospects of an early start to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. U.S. consumer prices increased more than expected in December as Americans paid more for shelter and healthcare, suggesting that it was probably too early for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, was up 0.9% at $72.00 a barrel after Iran seized an oil tanker off the coast of Oman, raising the prospect of escalating conflict in the Middle East.The loonie was trading 0.15% higher at 1.3375 to the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3397 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3448(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3358(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3318 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Thursday after data showed U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in December, which could delay a much anticipated U.S. rate cut in March. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said it would likely be too soon for the central bank to cut its policy rate in March, while Richmond Fed chief Tom Barkin said gains on inflation have been too narrowly focused on goods. Traders see a 67% probability of a rate cut in March, according to the CME Fedwatch tool, compared with about a 71% chance seen before the report. Higher rates dim the appeal of gold, which pays no interest. Attention will now turn to the U.S. producer price index (PPI) due on Friday. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.87(Daily high),an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.21( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 145.10(38.2% fib)a break below could take the pair towards 143.81(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Thursday after data showed U.S. consumer price inflation came in above economists' expectations in December, raising some doubts that the Federal Reserve will cut rates.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.98 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.86 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.52 percent.
U.S. stocks closed little changed on Thursday as news of hotter-than-expected inflation and signs of labor market strength dampened hopes for early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, but a fall in Treasury yields kept declines in check.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.04 %percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.07% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.01 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Thursday to a one-month low as the dollar ticked higher after hotter-than-expected inflation data, while hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials fuelled worries that higher interest rates could stay unchanged beyond March.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,024.99 per ounce, as of 2:30 p.m. ET (1930 GMT), after rising as much as 0.8% before the data.U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% lower at $2019.20.
Oil prices gained about 1% on Thursday after Iran seized an oil tanker off the coast of Oman, raising the prospect of escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Brent futures rose 61 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $77.41 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 65 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $72.02.