Posted at 17 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Dec PPI Input (MoM) -1.2%, -0.7% forecast,-0.3%previous
•UK Dec Core PPI Output (MoM) 0.0%,0.0% previous
•UK Dec PPI Input (YoY) -2.8%,-1.9% forecast,-2.6% previous
•UK Dec Core PPI Output (YoY) 0.1%,0.2% previous
•UK Dec PPI Output (YoY) 0.1% ,0.4% forecast,-0.2% previous
•UK Dec RPI (MoM) 0.5%,0.4% forecast,-0.1% previous
•UK Dec RPI (YoY) 5.2% ,5.1% forecast,5.3% previous
•UK Dec Core RPI (MoM) 0.4%,-0.2% previous
•UK Dec CPI (YoY) 4.0%, 3.8% forecast,3.9% previous
•UK Dec CPI, n.s.a 132.20, 131.70 previous
•UK Dec CPI (MoM) 0.4%,0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•EU Dec CPI (MoM) 0.2%,0.2% forecast,-0.6% previous
•EU Dec HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast,-0.5% previous
•EU Dec CPI (YoY) 2.9%, 2.9% forecast,2.4% previous
•EU Dec HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 3.9%,3.9% forecast,4.2% previous
•EU Dec Core CPI (MoM) 0.5%,0.4% forecast,-0.6% previous
•EU Dec Core CPI (YoY) 3.4%,3.4% forecast,3.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Dec RMPI (MoM) -1.6% forecast,-4.2% previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Retail Control (MoM) 0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada IPPI (YoY) -2.3% previous
•13:30 US Dec Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.6% previous
•13:30 US Dec Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.2% previous
•13:30 Canada Nov Foreign Securities Purchases -15.75B previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (MoM) -0.6% forecast,-0.9% previous
•13:30 US Dec Import Price Index (MoM) -0.5% forecast,-0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Nov Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians -8.20B previous
•13:30 US Dec Retail Sales (YoY) 4.09% previous
•13:30 US Dec IPPI (MoM) -0.7% forecast,-0.4% previous
•13:30 US Export Price Index (YoY)-5.2% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) -1.4% previous
•13:30 US Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) 0.2% previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.9% previous
•14:15 US Dec Manufacturing Production (MoM) 0.0% forecast,0.3% previous
•14:15 US Dec Industrial Production (YoY) -0.39% previous
•14:15 US Dec Capacity Utilization Rate 78.7% forecast, 78.8% previous
•14:15 US Dec Industrial Production (MoM) 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
•15:00 US Nov Retail Inventories Ex Auto -0.8% forecast,-0.9% previous
•15:00 US Business Inventories (MoM)-0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•15:00 US Jan NAHB Housing Market Index 39 forecast,37 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•14:00 US Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
•14:00 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•20:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed on Wednesday as more hawkish tone from European Central Bank (ECB) officials dampened expectations of imminent interest rate cuts. Concurrently, bleak economic data from China contributed to a gloomy investor sentiment. In recent statements from policymakers, ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the central bank is making progress in steering inflation back to its 2% target, but she emphasized that the victory has not been secured. Additionally, Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot expressed the view that financial markets are preemptively factoring in monetary easing measures. Meanwhile, data revealed that China's economic growth rate for the fourth quarter fell short of market expectations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0934(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0955(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0868(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0853(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: the British pound gained ground on Wednesday after the release of data indicating a rise in the annual consumer inflation rate for December. This marked the first increase in 10 months and surpassed expectations, presenting a challenge to the prevailing belief that Bank of England rate cuts are imminent. Official data showed that Britain's annual consumer price inflation rate surged to 4% in December, up from November's 3.9%, which marked its lowest point in over two years. Contrary to a consensus among economists predicting a reading of 3.8%, the actual figures surpassed expectations. Sterling was last up 0.1% at $1.2650, having been down 0.19% before the data. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2698(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2716(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2611 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2591(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Wednesday as the safe haven gained on the hit to sentiment from soft Chinese data and global rate setters arguing against imminent cuts. jump was driven in part by the Federal Reserve's Christopher Waller saying that while the U.S. is "within striking distance" of the Fed's 2% inflation goal, the Fed should not rush towards cuts in its benchmark interest rate until it is clear lower inflation will be sustained. Market expectations of a rate cut in March have eased to around a 60% chance versus roughly a 75% view in the prior session, according to CME's FedWatch Tool .The dollar index reached 103.58, its highest since December 13, extending gains after a 0.67% jump on Tuesday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8675(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8688(Higher BB ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8611(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8442(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday as hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official diminished hopes of a U.S. interest rate cut in March. The U.S. is within striking distance" of the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal, but the central bank should not rush to cut its benchmark interest rate until it is clear lower inflation will be sustained, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Tuesday. Waller's remarks served as a counter to market expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates at its March meeting and lop perhaps 1.5 percentage points from the benchmark policy rate by the end of the year. The dollar traded at its highest since early December against the rate-sensitive Japanese yen , last up 0.3% at 147.64 .Strong resistance can be seen at 147.97(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.54( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.61(38.2% fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.55(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares extended losses on Wednesday as more hawkish remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) officials tempered interest rate cut expectations, while glum economic data from China further soured investor sentiment.
At (GMT 13:15 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 1.68 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.03 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.21 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were flat on Wednesday after hitting an almost one-week low, pressured by a stronger dollar as hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official diminished hopes of a U.S. interest rate cut in March.
Spot gold was flat at $2,027.29 per ounce, as of 1245 GMT. It fell 1.3% in the previous session in its biggest single-day decline since Dec. 4.
Oil fell more than $1 on Wednesday as economic growth in China, the world's second-largest crude user, slightly missed expectations, raising concerns about future demand, while U.S. dollar strength dented investor's risk appetite.
Brent crude futures fell $1.26, or 1.6%, to $77.03 per barrel by 1158 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) were down $1.35, or 1.9%, at $71.05.